Unless you have a house or business on the water, you may have never heard of the National Flood Insurance Program. And you may be surprised to learn (assuming you haven’t read the 100 or so pages of fine print on your Homeowner’s or Renter’s Insurance policy) that you are not covered for flood loses. That’s because the risks and expenses associated with floods are so high that insurance companies hate to cover them. Yet without flood insurance, any development in flood plain areas would be a non-starter. No financial institution would lend money without reasonable assurance that their loss would be covered in the event of a flood.
Now, you might be thinking “why would anyone want to build in a flood plain?” In fact, lots of people do — a very high percentage of the most valuable real estate in the country is subject to flooding. Without flood insurance, lots of cities and towns would have virtually no tax base, and lots of developers, construction workers and realtors would be out of a job. To grease the wheels of such a lucrative sector of the economy, we have the National Flood Insurance Program.
Administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency — FEMA — the flood insurance program uses the good name of the US government to guarantee a supposedly private insurance pool. Until 2004, the program was entirely paid for by the premiums charged to it’s customers. Then came global warming dressed up as Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy. To cover the huge loses from these and other storms, NFIP had accumulated $25 billion in government debt by 2017. At that point, Congress, rather than deal with the enormity of the problem, simply canceled $16 billion of that debt to keep the program solvent. Currently, NFIP owes the federal govenment about $20.5 billion.
FEMA is required to only sell flood insurance in communities that promise to enforce restrictions on development in high risk areas. To this end, the agency publishes maps that attempt to forecast the frequency of flooding and the heights that flood waters are likely to reach. FEMA has recently updated these maps to include the likely effects of wind and waves, but so far they make no acknowledgement of sea level rise or the increasing intensity of weather events!
It’s not hard to see where this is going. A charitable person might believe that perhaps FEMA has been too busy for the last few decades to think about the ramifications of global warming. A more cynical one might see the influence of powerful constituencies. Anyone in the insurance business can see that NFIP will need another government bailout very soon, and unless FEMA makes drastic changes to it’s policies, it will be just one of many.
On a myopic level, it seems obvious that a good part of NFIP’s troubles stem from a long outdated view of what constitutes an area at high risk of flooding. Shelling out taxpayer money to rebuild a house or business that is in obvious danger of being repeatedly destroyed seems like dark comedy. But given the power of money in our politics, we should not expect an end to this boondoggle any time soon.
But if you zoom out a bit, you can’t avoid the enormous scale of the problem. Sea levels are just beginning to rise. Recently we’ve seen small localized storms that bring devastating rainfalls, washing away entire towns. The streets of Norfolk, VA, home of the worlds largest Navy base, flood whenever a minor coastal storm coincides with a higher than average tide. In Miami, beachfront condo owners are finding that salt water intrusion is weakening their foundations. And yet coastal development continues to surge, the handmaiden of a failing insurance program.
Consider:
While city planners clamber for federal monies for mitigation projects, the more prescient among them are wondering “can this city be saved?” At some point, very hard choices will have to be made.
So far, sea level rise on the US east coast is about 3 inches. Predictions are that it will be 3 feet by 2080. Many east coast cities would be indefensible against such higher levels. Most climate change effects have come much more quickly than originally predicted. Which cities should we save?
If we stopped all carbon emissions tomorrow, temperatures would keep rising for several decades, and sea levels would continue to rise for at least 100 years.
Large and prolonged storms are no longer necessary for devastating flooding to occur.
Things you should do.
Plan to visit some of our historical treasures before it is too late: Tangier Island, VA, the Carolina Outer Banks and beautiful Charleston, SC should be on your list. Better check the forecast before you go.
Ask you representatives in Congress to start to reform the National Flood Insurance Program. Flooding maps should be updated to reflect climate change, policy premiums should be high enough to cover damage settlements, and plans must be put in place for abandonment of indefensible areas.
Watch some exciting footage of what the future holds for some of the country’s most expensive real estate: WFMY News
Thanks for reading,
Doug Hylan, Brooklin, Maine
“The last time CO2 densities were at this level was more than 3 million years ago in the mid Pliocene warm period. And at that time sea level was 48 to 82 feet higher than it is today.” National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration