Another Northern Hemisphere summer is nearly behind us (at least in Maine) and it has been a hot one. We have run our mini-split heat pump in its cooling mode more often this summer, perhaps 5 or 6 evenings. In Downeast Maine, we complain a lot if it gets much into the 80’s, and when we hear about the temperatures that the less fortunate have to endure, there is sympathy but no true comprehension of what it means to live with extreme heat.
In recent years we’ve seen reports of heat waves in regions that, like Maine, traditionally haven’t seen a need for air conditioning: the Pacific Northwest and the British Isles come to mind. In other reasonably temperate regions the remaining diehards are throwing in the towel and getting A/C. Then there are the hundreds of millions of people who live in steamy countries who, thanks to globalization, finally have the money to buy some respite from the heat. No one in Maine could begrudge that desire!
The result is that cooling, and the energy required to do it, is forecast to increase dramatically over the next decades. This is a worry to those who do the institutional worrying about climate change, and it should be for everyone else as well. Just as we were starting to see a path to reducing our greenhouse gas emission, along comes a surge in air conditioning to drive our energy demands even higher!
The technology at the heart of heat pumping has made huge advances in the last couple of decades. For a refresher course see: #8 Pumping Heat. The new small heat pumps (often referred to as mini-splits) have several advantages over the traditional window A/C — they provide heating as well as cooling, are quieter, and use substantially less electricity. However, they are initially more expensive and require a qualified installer.
Let’s say you are a citizen of lovely Seattle, WA, suffering through another unprecedented heat wave and ready to bite the bullet and get air conditioning. You have two options:
Call a heat pump installer, wait a couple of months to get your new mini-split, and pay $2000 to 3000.
Or, hop in the car and drive to Home Depot, plunk down $200 to 600 for a small window unit, and get a good night’s sleep.
In spite of all the advantages of a heat pump, and the fact that in 5 years it will have paid for itself in energy savings, which path are you likely to take?
There is another problem with the rush to low cost window air conditioners: they use refrigerant gases that, if leaked into the atmosphere, are nearly 2000 times as potent as CO2 at causing warming. Since they are small and light, they tend to get moved around a lot — taken out in the cooler months, or moved to a new apartment. These moves put them at more risk of damage and refrigerant leaks. And since they are inexpensive, most people don’t worry too much about it.
The Catch 22
The hotter it gets, the more we want air conditioning. The more air conditioners we install, the hotter it gets. Once purchased, an inefficient machine will continue its dastardly work for a decade or two, making it harder to achieve an entirely renewable electrical grid. We can’t even begin the work of reversing climate change until the grid is free from CO2 emissions. The global stock of air conditioners in buildings is expected to grow from 1.6 billion units today to 5.6 billion in 2050, requiring as much energy as is produced today in the US, EU and Japan combined! Christian Science Monitor
One solution: Sticks
The International Energy Agency advocates strict energy efficiency standards as a solution. Up to now, most of the focus by air conditioner manufacturers has aimed at making them cheaper, rather than more efficient. The Rocky Mountain Institute’s Global Cooling Prize aims at technologies that are more than 5 times as efficient as those in current production. Properly enforced, regulations requiring such machines could save as much as USD 2.9 trillion in investment, fuel and operating costs.
For the US, more carrots. Yum!
In America, where it’s assumed that we should never be forced to doing something for our own good, we have our own particular magic bullet — tax incentives! The new Inflation Reduction Act (don’t call it a climate act, whatever you do) offers generous incentives for installing high efficiency heat pumps and other energy saving appliances.
Things you can do:
If you own your own home and are thinking of getting a new or replacement window air conditioner, hold off! Sign up for a heat pump instead.
If you live in an apartment and want a window unit that uses modern heat pump technology for efficient heating and cooling, check out the innovative products from Gradient Comfort.
If you have A/C, turn up the thermostat a few degrees, run a couple of fans and dress lightly. Italy, Greece and Spain have set minimum thermostat settings of 80 F for public buildings.
If you have an old portable air conditioner that is ready for the scrap heap, make sure its refrigerant goes to a recycler. Be careful not to damage it.
Please take 4 minutes to watch this video about a solution to the looming air conditioning crisis: RMI
Take advantage of some of the amazing energy and money saving features of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
Thanks for reading,
Doug Hylan, Brooklin, Maine
“The biggest uncertainty is us. It’s up to us to save ourselves.” Katharine Hayhoe, atmospheric scientist.